Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–3 Beitar Jerusalem

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Beitar Jerusalem

A. Yona 80'

Y. Shua 50' (pen)

O. Atzili 19'

1/18/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Round 19Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona30%

×Draw23%

Beitar Jerusalem48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Kiryat ShmonaExpected goals in this matchBeitar Jerusalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.82

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.39

Beitar Jerusalem

1.82

Beitar Jerusalem creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.48

creates per match

2.17

1.48

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.48

Beitar Jerusalem

2.17

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.48

Beitar Jerusalem

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw

52%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Beitar Jerusalem

77%

Draw or Beitar Jerusalem

70%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

13%

Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

75%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

40%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

16%

Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals

84%

Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals

54%

Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

38%

Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.48 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Beitar Jerusalem attack 2.17 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

30%

level

23%

Beitar Jerusalem scores more

48%

Beitar Jerusalem at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Y. Shua

Beitar Jerusalem · F

8.5

Match Events

15'

19'

30'

30'

47'

50'

Y. ShuaPenalty

52'

D. Twito

53'

O. Dadia← N. Cohen

53'

C. Bella← S. Ben David

55'

I. Soro

61'

L. Yarin

69'

S. Kani← O. Atzili

72'

H. Shibli← Y. Mordechai

76'

T. Muzi← P. Twumasi

76'

A. Yona← D. Micha

80'

A. Yona↳ Y. Shua

85'

L. Deri← G. Cohen

85'

A. Jeno← Y. Levi

89'

L. Deri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IroniBeitar

Overview

21%Possession79%

3Total Shots20

1Corners8

9Fouls13

Shots

3Total Shots20

1On Target10

2Off Target8

0Blocked2

2Inside Box12

1Outside Box8

Passing

21%Possession79%

159Total Passes595

96Accurate Passes534

60%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1