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Bintang Lair vs Acoconut — Eerste Divisie 2019

Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
FT
2 – 1
Acoconut
Acoconut
2/1/2020Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 6André-Kamperveen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bintang Lair31%
×Draw19%
Acoconut50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bintang Lair
2.03
Acoconut
2.59

Acoconut creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bintang Lair
1.56
Acoconut
1.50

allows per match

Bintang Lair
3.69
Acoconut
2.50

finishing

Bintang Lair+0.00on par
Acoconut+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bintang Lair ↓

Acoconut →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Bintang Lair or draw
50%
Bintang Lair or Acoconut
81%
Draw or Acoconut
69%

Winning margin

Bintang Lair wins by 2+
16%
Acoconut wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Bintang Lair 1+ goals
87%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
60%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
33%
Acoconut 1+ goals
92%
Acoconut 2+ goals
73%
Acoconut 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
38%
Acoconut (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bintang Lair at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

Acoconut away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bintang Lair attack 1.56 + Acoconut defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.03

Acoconut attack 1.50 + Bintang Lair defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bintang Lair scores more
31%
level
19%
Acoconut scores more
50%

Acoconut at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Acoconut will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Bintang Lair vs Acoconut

Bintang Lair beat Acoconut 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at André-Kamperveen-Stadion in Paramaribo.