Ironi Beit Dagan 1–3 Hapoel Azor: Result & Stats

Ironi Beit Dagan

1 – 3

Hapoel Azor

8/30/2022

State Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Beit Dagan Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ironi Beit Dagan32%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Azor42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Beit DaganExpected goals in this matchHapoel Azor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.42

Ironi Beit Dagan

1.21

Hapoel Azor

1.42

Hapoel Azor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.25

creates per match

1.33

1.50

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Ironi Beit Dagan

1.25

Hapoel Azor

1.33

allows per match

Ironi Beit Dagan

1.50

Hapoel Azor

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Beit Dagan+0.00on par

Hapoel Azor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Beit Dagan ↓

Hapoel Azor →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ironi Beit Dagan or draw

58%

Ironi Beit Dagan or Hapoel Azor

74%

Draw or Hapoel Azor

68%

Winning margin

Ironi Beit Dagan wins by 2+

13%

Hapoel Azor wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ironi Beit Dagan 1+ goals

70%

Ironi Beit Dagan 2+ goals

34%

Ironi Beit Dagan 3+ goals

12%

Hapoel Azor 1+ goals

76%

Hapoel Azor 2+ goals

41%

Hapoel Azor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ironi Beit Dagan (draw refunded)

43%

Hapoel Azor (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ironi Beit Dagan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Hapoel Azor away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Beit Dagan attack 1.25 + Hapoel Azor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hapoel Azor attack 1.33 + Ironi Beit Dagan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ironi Beit Dagan scores more

32%

level

26%

Hapoel Azor scores more

42%

Hapoel Azor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Azor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff