Ironi Beit Dagan 2–0 Hakoah Ramat Gan

Ironi Beit Dagan

2 – 0

Hakoah Ramat Gan

9/5/2024

State Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Beit Dagan Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ironi Beit Dagan52%

×Draw23%

Hakoah Ramat Gan25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Beit DaganExpected goals in this matchHakoah Ramat Gan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.25

Ironi Beit Dagan

1.88

Hakoah Ramat Gan

1.25

Ironi Beit Dagan creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Ironi Beit Dagan

1.25

Hakoah Ramat Gan

1.00

allows per match

Ironi Beit Dagan

1.50

Hakoah Ramat Gan

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Beit Dagan+0.00on par

Hakoah Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Beit Dagan ↓

Hakoah Ramat Gan →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ironi Beit Dagan or draw

75%

Ironi Beit Dagan or Hakoah Ramat Gan

77%

Draw or Hakoah Ramat Gan

48%

Winning margin

Ironi Beit Dagan wins by 2+

29%

Hakoah Ramat Gan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ironi Beit Dagan 1+ goals

85%

Ironi Beit Dagan 2+ goals

56%

Ironi Beit Dagan 3+ goals

29%

Hakoah Ramat Gan 1+ goals

71%

Hakoah Ramat Gan 2+ goals

36%

Hakoah Ramat Gan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ironi Beit Dagan (draw refunded)

67%

Hakoah Ramat Gan (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ironi Beit Dagan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Hakoah Ramat Gan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Beit Dagan attack 1.25 + Hakoah Ramat Gan defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Hakoah Ramat Gan attack 1.00 + Ironi Beit Dagan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ironi Beit Dagan scores more

52%

level

23%

Hakoah Ramat Gan scores more

25%

Ironi Beit Dagan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ironi Beit Dagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff