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Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — State Cup 2019

Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1/9/2024State CupState Cup · 7th RoundBaqa al-Gharbiyye Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ironi Baka El Garbiya39%
×Draw23%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Baka El Garbiya
1.71
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ironi Baka El Garbiya
2.25
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.83

allows per match

Ironi Baka El Garbiya
1.50
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.17

finishing

Ironi Baka El Garbiya+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Baka El Garbiya ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ironi Baka El Garbiya or draw
62%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
77%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
61%

Winning margin

Ironi Baka El Garbiya wins by 2+
20%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1+ goals
82%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya 2+ goals
51%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya 3+ goals
24%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
81%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
50%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ironi Baka El Garbiya (draw refunded)
51%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Baka El Garbiya at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Baka El Garbiya attack 2.25 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.83 + Ironi Baka El Garbiya defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ironi Baka El Garbiya scores more
39%
level
23%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
38%

Ironi Baka El Garbiya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ironi Baka El Garbiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Ironi Baka El Garbiya 0–4 Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Ironi Baka El Garbiya 4-0 in State Cup on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at Baqa al-Gharbiyye Stadium in Baqa al-Gharbiyye.