Irkutsk 2–4 Tver: Result & Stats

Irkutsk

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Tver

V. Lutashev 90', 72'

N. Abdulkin 52', 39'

M. Shavel 28'

A. Khashkulov 25'

6/28/2025

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Trud stadium Irkutsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Irkutsk47%

×Draw26%

Tver27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IrkutskExpected goals in this matchTver

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.10

Irkutsk

1.52

Tver

1.10

Irkutsk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 89 away

1.57

creates per match

1.26

0.95

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Irkutsk

1.57

Tver

1.26

allows per match

Irkutsk

0.95

Tver

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irkutsk+0.00on par

Tver+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irkutsk ↓

Tver →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Irkutsk or draw

73%

Irkutsk or Tver

74%

Draw or Tver

53%

Winning margin

Irkutsk wins by 2+

24%

Tver wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Irkutsk 1+ goals

78%

Irkutsk 2+ goals

45%

Irkutsk 3+ goals

20%

Tver 1+ goals

67%

Tver 2+ goals

30%

Tver 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Irkutsk (draw refunded)

63%

Tver (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irkutsk at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Tver away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irkutsk attack 1.57 + Tver defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tver attack 1.26 + Irkutsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Irkutsk scores more

47%

level

26%

Tver scores more

27%

Irkutsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

28'

39'

40'

46'

A. Dudarev← D. Oganichev

46'

A. Polorotov← S. Alekseev

46'

V. Bogdanov← I. Yakovlev

46'

V. Bogomolov← D. Sokolov

52'

N. Abdulkin

60'

E. Perevoznikov← A. Putilov

66'

A. Lavrentiev← E. Belyaev

70'

M. Nabiev← A. Alimkhanov

70'

A. Shevtsov← N. Abdulkin

72'

V. Lutashev

75'

M. Shavel

81'

S. Tormashev← A. Sulebanov

81'

D. Pavlenko← M. Shavel

83'

A. Lavrentiev

90'

V. Lutashev

Irkutsk

Tver

1

4

25

33

15

▼

Sokolov

23

▼

Sulebanov

18

⚽2

▼

Abdulkin

5

Korneev

96

⚽

▼

Shavel

10

▼

Alimkhano

11

⚽

Khashkulo

16

Tsygulev

27

▼

28

23

38

37

▼

Belyaev

19

Mashnev

14

▼

Putilov

21

▼

Oganichev

11

⚽2

Lutashev

33

Yakovlev

Manager: K. Dzutsev

46'▲A. Dudarev←▼D. Oganichev

46'▲A. Polorotov←▼S. Alekseev

46'▲V. Bogdanov←▼I. Yakovlev

60'▲E. Perevoznikov←▼A. Putilov

66'▲A. Lavrentiev←▼E. Belyaev

Irkutsk substitutes

71Vafiev41Dudarev5Polorotov34Usov24Tolmachev99Lomash69Perevoznikov70Kalugin80Bogdanov7Lavrentiev

Manager: A. Averyanov

46'▲V. Bogomolov←▼D. Sokolov

70'▲M. Nabiev←▼A. Alimkhanov

70'▲A. Shevtsov←▼N. Abdulkin

81'▲S. Tormashev←▼A. Sulebanov

81'▲D. Pavlenko←▼M. Shavel

Tver substitutes

82Lyutikov2Tormashev87Bogomolov17Nabiev7Pavlenko76Shevtsov

Second League - Group 2: Irkutsk 2–4 Tver

Tver beat Irkutsk 4-2 in Second League - Group 2 on June 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Khashkulov (25'), M. Shavel (28'), N. Abdulkin (39', 52'), V. Lutashev (72', 90').

The match was played at Trud stadium Irkutsk.

Irkutsk vs Tver — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Irkutsk 2–4 Tver