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Irkutsk vs Elektron VN — Second League - Group 2 2020

Irkutsk
Irkutsk
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Elektron VN
Elektron VN
10/22/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Irkutsk73%
×Draw17%
Elektron VN10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irkutsk
2.31
Elektron VN
0.70

Irkutsk creates 230% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 24 away

creates per match

Irkutsk
1.57
Elektron VN
0.46

allows per match

Irkutsk
0.95
Elektron VN
3.04

finishing

Irkutsk+0.00on par
Elektron VN+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irkutsk ↓

Elektron VN →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Irkutsk or draw
90%
Irkutsk or Elektron VN
83%
Draw or Elektron VN
27%

Winning margin

Irkutsk wins by 2+
50%
Elektron VN wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Irkutsk 1+ goals
90%
Irkutsk 2+ goals
67%
Irkutsk 3+ goals
40%
Elektron VN 1+ goals
50%
Elektron VN 2+ goals
16%
Elektron VN 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Irkutsk (draw refunded)
88%
Elektron VN (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irkutsk at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Elektron VN away — creates 0.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irkutsk attack 1.57 + Elektron VN defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.31

Elektron VN attack 0.46 + Irkutsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Irkutsk scores more
73%
level
17%
Elektron VN scores more
10%

Irkutsk at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irkutsk vs Elektron VN

Irkutsk beat Elektron VN 5-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Irkutsk.