Irkutsk 3–3 Dinamo St. Petersburg: Result & Stats

Irkutsk

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Dinamo St. Petersburg

A. Uboniev 90+2', 68'

G. Trufanov 4'

D. Shilov 36'

A. Kazarinov 32'

K. Fateev 11'

5/19/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion Shakhter Cheremkhovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Irkutsk44%

×Draw25%

Dinamo St. Petersburg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IrkutskExpected goals in this matchDinamo St. Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.22

Irkutsk

1.50

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.22

Irkutsk creates 23% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 61 away

1.57

creates per match

1.49

0.95

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Irkutsk

1.57

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.49

allows per match

Irkutsk

0.95

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irkutsk+0.00on par

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irkutsk ↓

Dinamo St. Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Irkutsk or draw

69%

Irkutsk or Dinamo St. Petersburg

75%

Draw or Dinamo St. Petersburg

56%

Winning margin

Irkutsk wins by 2+

21%

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Irkutsk 1+ goals

78%

Irkutsk 2+ goals

44%

Irkutsk 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals

34%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Irkutsk (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irkutsk at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irkutsk attack 1.57 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.49 + Irkutsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Irkutsk scores more

44%

level

25%

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more

31%

Irkutsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

11'

32'

36'

46'

I. Yakovlev← V. Bragin

46'

E. Perevoznikov← M. Mashnev

62'

S. Utkin← K. Fateev

68'

A. Uboniev

71'

N. Shikov← A. Pikarev

77'

E. Bogdanov← A. Putilov

81'

A. Gavrilenko← A. Ustinov

90+2'

A. Uboniev

Irkutsk

Dinamo

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: K. Dzutsev

46'▲I. Yakovlev←▼V. Bragin

46'▲E. Perevoznikov←▼M. Mashnev

77'▲E. Bogdanov←▼A. Putilov

Irkutsk substitutes

YakovlevPerevoznikovBogdanov

Manager: N. Kotovets

62'▲S. Utkin←▼K. Fateev

71'▲N. Shikov←▼A. Pikarev

81'▲A. Gavrilenko←▼A. Ustinov

Dinamo St. Petersburg substitutes

UtkinShikovGavrilenko

Second League - Group 2: Irkutsk 3–3 Dinamo St. Petersburg

Irkutsk and Dinamo St. Petersburg drew 3-3 in Second League - Group 2 on May 19, 2024.

Goals: G. Trufanov (4'), K. Fateev (11'), A. Kazarinov (32'), D. Shilov (36'), A. Uboniev (68', 90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Shakhter Cheremkhovo in Cheremkhovo.

Irkutsk vs Dinamo St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Irkutsk 3–3 Dinamo St. Petersburg