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Irkutsk vs Dinamo Moskva II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Irkutsk
Irkutsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
8/11/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Irkutsk41%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Moskva II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irkutsk
1.37
Dinamo Moskva II
1.21

Irkutsk creates 13% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 70 away

creates per match

Irkutsk
1.57
Dinamo Moskva II
1.46

allows per match

Irkutsk
0.95
Dinamo Moskva II
1.17

finishing

Irkutsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irkutsk ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Irkutsk or draw
67%
Irkutsk or Dinamo Moskva II
74%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva II
59%

Winning margin

Irkutsk wins by 2+
19%
Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Irkutsk 1+ goals
75%
Irkutsk 2+ goals
40%
Irkutsk 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Irkutsk (draw refunded)
55%
Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irkutsk at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irkutsk attack 1.57 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.46 + Irkutsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Irkutsk scores more
41%
level
26%
Dinamo Moskva II scores more
33%

Irkutsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irkutsk vs Dinamo Moskva II

Irkutsk beat Dinamo Moskva II 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Irkutsk.