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Irkutsk vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Irkutsk
Irkutsk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
6/13/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Shakhter Cheremkhovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Irkutsk46%
×Draw26%
Baltika BFU28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irkutsk
1.50
Baltika BFU
1.10

Irkutsk creates 36% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 53 away

creates per match

Irkutsk
1.57
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Irkutsk
0.95
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Irkutsk+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irkutsk ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Irkutsk or draw
72%
Irkutsk or Baltika BFU
74%
Draw or Baltika BFU
54%

Winning margin

Irkutsk wins by 2+
23%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Irkutsk 1+ goals
78%
Irkutsk 2+ goals
44%
Irkutsk 3+ goals
19%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
67%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
30%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Irkutsk (draw refunded)
63%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irkutsk at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irkutsk attack 1.57 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Irkutsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Irkutsk scores more
46%
level
26%
Baltika BFU scores more
28%

Irkutsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Irkutsk 2–2 Baltika BFU

Irkutsk and Baltika BFU drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 2 on June 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhter Cheremkhovo in Cheremkhovo.