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Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Transcendence — League One 2018

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dalian Transcendence
Dalian Transcendence
3/17/2018League OneLeague One · Round 2Yellow Dragon Sports Center (Hangzhou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown61%
×Draw22%
Dalian Transcendence17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
1.94
Dalian Transcendence
0.92

Hangzhou Greentown creates 111% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.89
Dalian Transcendence
0.80

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.04
Dalian Transcendence
2.00

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par
Dalian Transcendence+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Dalian Transcendence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
83%
Hangzhou Greentown or Dalian Transcendence
78%
Draw or Dalian Transcendence
39%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
37%
Dalian Transcendence wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
86%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
58%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
30%
Dalian Transcendence 1+ goals
60%
Dalian Transcendence 2+ goals
23%
Dalian Transcendence 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
78%
Dalian Transcendence (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

Dalian Transcendence away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.89 + Dalian Transcendence defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dalian Transcendence attack 0.80 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
61%
level
22%
Dalian Transcendence scores more
17%

Hangzhou Greentown at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hangzhou Greentown vs Dalian Transcendence

Hangzhou Greentown beat Dalian Transcendence 4-0 in League One on March 17, 2018.

The match was played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center (Hangzhou).