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Iraty U20 vs Cambé U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Iraty U20
Iraty U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cambé U20
Cambé U20
4/5/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 4Estádio Municipal de Irati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Iraty U2021%
×Draw20%
Cambé U2058%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iraty U20
1.25
Cambé U20
2.17

Cambé U20 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Iraty U20
0.50
Cambé U20
0.83

allows per match

Iraty U20
3.50
Cambé U20
2.00

finishing

Iraty U20+0.00on par
Cambé U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iraty U20 ↓

Cambé U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Iraty U20 or draw
42%
Iraty U20 or Cambé U20
80%
Draw or Cambé U20
79%

Winning margin

Iraty U20 wins by 2+
9%
Cambé U20 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Iraty U20 1+ goals
71%
Iraty U20 2+ goals
36%
Iraty U20 3+ goals
13%
Cambé U20 1+ goals
89%
Cambé U20 2+ goals
64%
Cambé U20 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Iraty U20 (draw refunded)
27%
Cambé U20 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iraty U20 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Cambé U20 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iraty U20 attack 0.50 + Cambé U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cambé U20 attack 0.83 + Iraty U20 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Iraty U20 scores more
21%
level
20%
Cambé U20 scores more
58%

Cambé U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cambé U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: Iraty U20 1–1 Cambé U20

Iraty U20 and Cambé U20 drew 1-1 in Paranaense U20 on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Irati in Irati, Paraná.