Iraty U20 1–3 Andraus Brasil U20: Result & Stats

Iraty U20

FT

1 – 3

Andraus Brasil U20

5/10/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 9Estádio Municipal de Irati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Iraty U2016%

×Draw18%

Andraus Brasil U2066%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iraty U20Expected goals in this matchAndraus Brasil U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.35

Iraty U20

1.05

Andraus Brasil U20

2.35

Andraus Brasil U20 creates 124% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

1.20

3.50

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Iraty U20

0.50

Andraus Brasil U20

1.20

allows per match

Iraty U20

3.50

Andraus Brasil U20

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iraty U20+0.00on par

Andraus Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iraty U20 ↓

Andraus Brasil U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Iraty U20 or draw

34%

Iraty U20 or Andraus Brasil U20

82%

Draw or Andraus Brasil U20

84%

Winning margin

Iraty U20 wins by 2+

5%

Andraus Brasil U20 wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Iraty U20 1+ goals

65%

Iraty U20 2+ goals

28%

Iraty U20 3+ goals

9%

Andraus Brasil U20 1+ goals

90%

Andraus Brasil U20 2+ goals

68%

Andraus Brasil U20 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Iraty U20 (draw refunded)

19%

Andraus Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iraty U20 at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Andraus Brasil U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iraty U20 attack 0.50 + Andraus Brasil U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

Andraus Brasil U20 attack 1.20 + Iraty U20 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Iraty U20 scores more

16%

level

18%

Andraus Brasil U20 scores more

66%

Andraus Brasil U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Andraus Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff