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Iraq vs Libya — Friendlies 2026

Iraq
Iraq
CANC
00:00
Libya
Libya
6/10/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Olympique de Radès (Radès)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Iraq35%
×Draw27%
Libya38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iraq
1.22
Libya
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

Iraq
1.44
Libya
1.58

allows per match

Iraq
1.00
Libya
1.00

finishing

Iraq+0.00on par
Libya+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iraq ↓

Libya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Iraq or draw
62%
Iraq or Libya
73%
Draw or Libya
65%

Winning margin

Iraq wins by 2+
15%
Libya wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Iraq 1+ goals
70%
Iraq 2+ goals
34%
Iraq 3+ goals
12%
Libya 1+ goals
72%
Libya 2+ goals
37%
Libya 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Iraq (draw refunded)
48%
Libya (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iraq at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Libya away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iraq attack 1.44 + Libya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Libya attack 1.58 + Iraq defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Iraq scores more
35%
level
27%
Libya scores more
38%

Libya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Libya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Iraq host Libya

June 10, 2019: Iraq take on Libya in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Iraq host Libya at Stade Olympique de Radès (Radès).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.