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Iraq vs Japan — Asian Cup 2019

Iraq
Iraq
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Japan
Japan
1/19/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 2Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iraq36%
×Draw22%
Japan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iraq
1.67
Japan
1.83

Japan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Iraq
2.50
Japan
1.67

allows per match

Iraq
2.00
Japan
0.83

finishing

Iraq+0.00on par
Japan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iraq ↓

Japan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Iraq or draw
58%
Iraq or Japan
78%
Draw or Japan
64%

Winning margin

Iraq wins by 2+
18%
Japan wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Iraq 1+ goals
81%
Iraq 2+ goals
50%
Iraq 3+ goals
23%
Japan 1+ goals
84%
Japan 2+ goals
54%
Japan 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Iraq (draw refunded)
46%
Japan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iraq at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Japan away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iraq attack 2.50 + Japan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Japan attack 1.67 + Iraq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Iraq scores more
36%
level
22%
Japan scores more
42%

Japan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Japan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iraq vs Japan

Iraq beat Japan 2-1 in Asian Cup on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Education City Stadium in Ar-Rayyan.