Irapuato 0–3 Monarcas: Result & Stats

Irapuato

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Monarcas

U. Garcia 77'

R. del Campo 56'

A. Flores 44'

10/19/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Sergio León Chávez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Irapuato52%

×Draw23%

Monarcas25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IrapuatoExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.18

Irapuato

1.79

Monarcas

1.18

Irapuato creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

2.18

creates per match

1.11

1.24

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Irapuato

2.18

Monarcas

1.11

allows per match

Irapuato

1.24

Monarcas

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irapuato+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irapuato ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Irapuato or draw

75%

Irapuato or Monarcas

77%

Draw or Monarcas

48%

Winning margin

Irapuato wins by 2+

29%

Monarcas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Irapuato 1+ goals

83%

Irapuato 2+ goals

53%

Irapuato 3+ goals

26%

Monarcas 1+ goals

69%

Monarcas 2+ goals

33%

Monarcas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Irapuato (draw refunded)

67%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irapuato at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irapuato attack 2.18 + Monarcas defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.79

Monarcas attack 1.11 + Irapuato defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Irapuato scores more

52%

level

23%

Monarcas scores more

25%

Irapuato at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Irapuato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

J. de Alba

44'

A. Flores↳ B. Figueroa

45+4'

45+7'

45+7'

46'

49'

51'

R. del Campo← A. Flores

56'

R. del Campo

60'

R. Martinez← R. Sandoval

60'

J. Delgado← J. Pucheta

60'

G. Munoz← J. Gamboa

70'

J. Martinez← B. Figueroa

70'

M. Nambo← J. Martinez

70'

G. Moreno← A. Palma

77'

U. Garcia↳ F. Figueroa

79'

C. Santana← J. de Alba

80'

A. Rodriguez← E. del Angel

82'

M. Dominguez← F. Figueroa

83'

B. Sanchez

Irapuato

Monarcas

1

Torres

2

Ortega

16

⚽

19

24

5

11

A

▼

Figueroa

20

▼

Palma

26

▼

Martinez

10

A

▼

Figueroa

28

⚽

▼

Flores

20

Hernandez

5

Elbis

14

▼

Alba

16

▼

Sandoval

31

Pena

6

▼

Angel

28

▼

Gamboa

34

Ruiz

2

Doldan

9

▼

Pucheta

25

Sanchez

Manager: Daniel Alcántar García

60'▲R. Martinez←▼R. Sandoval

60'▲J. Delgado←▼J. Pucheta

60'▲G. Munoz←▼J. Gamboa

79'▲C. Santana←▼J. de Alba

80'▲A. Rodriguez←▼E. del Angel

Irapuato substitutes

1Magana4Rivera26Santillan7Sosa13Martinez23Zamudio24Rodriguez33Delgado19Santana22Munoz

Manager: Gilberto Adame Soltero

51'▲R. del Campo←▼A. Flores

70'▲J. Martinez←▼B. Figueroa

70'▲M. Nambo←▼J. Martinez

70'▲G. Moreno←▼A. Palma

82'▲M. Dominguez←▼F. Figueroa

Monarcas substitutes

85Munoz23Esqueda7Islas8Martinez14Dominguez17Nambo29Brandon30Sandoval32Moreno9Campo