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Irao vs Betlemi — Liga 3 2024

Irao
Irao
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Betlemi
Betlemi
6/7/2025Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 12Grigol Jomartidze Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Irao59%
×Draw20%
Betlemi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irao
2.27
Betlemi
1.29

Irao creates 76% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Irao
1.79
Betlemi
1.32

allows per match

Irao
1.26
Betlemi
2.74

finishing

Irao+0.00on par
Betlemi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irao ↓

Betlemi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Irao or draw
79%
Irao or Betlemi
80%
Draw or Betlemi
41%

Winning margin

Irao wins by 2+
37%
Betlemi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Irao 1+ goals
90%
Irao 2+ goals
66%
Irao 3+ goals
39%
Betlemi 1+ goals
72%
Betlemi 2+ goals
37%
Betlemi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Irao (draw refunded)
74%
Betlemi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irao at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Betlemi away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.74 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irao attack 1.79 + Betlemi defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.27

Betlemi attack 1.32 + Irao defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Irao scores more
59%
level
20%
Betlemi scores more
21%

Irao at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Irao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irao vs Betlemi

Irao and Betlemi drew 2-2 in Liga 3 on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Grigol Jomartidze Stadium in Khashuri.