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Iranduba W vs Sao Francisco W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Iranduba W
Iranduba W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sao Francisco W
Sao Francisco W
7/19/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Iranduba W70%
×Draw17%
Sao Francisco W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iranduba W
2.60
Sao Francisco W
1.06

Iranduba W creates 145% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

creates per match

Iranduba W
1.41
Sao Francisco W
0.53

allows per match

Iranduba W
1.59
Sao Francisco W
3.80

finishing

Iranduba W+0.00on par
Sao Francisco W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iranduba W ↓

Sao Francisco W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Iranduba W or draw
87%
Iranduba W or Sao Francisco W
83%
Draw or Sao Francisco W
30%

Winning margin

Iranduba W wins by 2+
48%
Sao Francisco W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Iranduba W 1+ goals
92%
Iranduba W 2+ goals
73%
Iranduba W 3+ goals
47%
Sao Francisco W 1+ goals
65%
Sao Francisco W 2+ goals
29%
Sao Francisco W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Iranduba W (draw refunded)
84%
Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iranduba W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Sao Francisco W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iranduba W attack 1.41 + Sao Francisco W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.60

Sao Francisco W attack 0.53 + Iranduba W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Iranduba W scores more
70%
level
17%
Sao Francisco W scores more
13%

Iranduba W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Iranduba W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iranduba W vs Sao Francisco W

Iranduba W beat Sao Francisco W 5-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 19, 2018.