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Iranduba W vs Ferroviaria W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Iranduba W
Iranduba W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ferroviaria W
Ferroviaria W
5/10/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Iranduba W31%
×Draw25%
Ferroviaria W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iranduba W
1.25
Ferroviaria W
1.52

Ferroviaria W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 71 away

creates per match

Iranduba W
1.41
Ferroviaria W
1.45

allows per match

Iranduba W
1.59
Ferroviaria W
1.08

finishing

Iranduba W+0.00on par
Ferroviaria W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iranduba W ↓

Ferroviaria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Iranduba W or draw
56%
Iranduba W or Ferroviaria W
75%
Draw or Ferroviaria W
69%

Winning margin

Iranduba W wins by 2+
13%
Ferroviaria W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Iranduba W 1+ goals
71%
Iranduba W 2+ goals
36%
Iranduba W 3+ goals
13%
Ferroviaria W 1+ goals
78%
Ferroviaria W 2+ goals
45%
Ferroviaria W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Iranduba W (draw refunded)
42%
Ferroviaria W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iranduba W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Ferroviaria W away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iranduba W attack 1.41 + Ferroviaria W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ferroviaria W attack 1.45 + Iranduba W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Iranduba W scores more
31%
level
25%
Ferroviaria W scores more
44%

Ferroviaria W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ferroviaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Iranduba W 2–2 Ferroviaria W

Iranduba W and Ferroviaria W drew 2-2 in Brasileiro Women on May 10, 2018.