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Iran W vs Iraq W — Friendlies Women 2026

Iran W
Iran W
FT
8 – 0
Iraq W
Iraq W
6/10/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iran W95%
×Draw4%
Iraq W1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iran W
4.17
Iraq W
0.40

Iran W creates 942% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Iran W
3.60
Iraq W
0.00

allows per match

Iran W
0.80
Iraq W
4.75

finishing

Iran W+0.00on par
Iraq W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iran W ↓

Iraq W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–015%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (15%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Iran W or draw
99%
Iran W or Iraq W
96%
Draw or Iraq W
5%

Winning margin

Iran W wins by 2+
84%
Iraq W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Iran W 1+ goals
98%
Iran W 2+ goals
91%
Iran W 3+ goals
75%
Iraq W 1+ goals
33%
Iraq W 2+ goals
6%
Iraq W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Iran W (draw refunded)
99%
Iraq W (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iran W at home — creates 3.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Iraq W away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iran W attack 3.60 + Iraq W defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 4.17

Iraq W attack 0.00 + Iran W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Iran W scores more
95%
level
4%
Iraq W scores more
1%

Iran W at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Iran W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Iran W 8–0 Iraq W

Iran W beat Iraq W 8-0 in Friendlies Women on June 10, 2025.