Iran 1–0 United Arab Emirates: Result & Stats

Iran

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

United Arab Emirates

M. Taremi 44'

2/1/2022

League #30 · 3rd Round - 8Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Iran67%

×Draw24%

United Arab Emirates9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IranExpected goals in this matchUnited Arab Emirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.42

Iran

1.59

United Arab Emirates

0.42

Iran creates 279% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.64

creates per match

0.54

0.29

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Iran

1.64

United Arab Emirates

0.54

allows per match

Iran

0.29

United Arab Emirates

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iran+0.00on par

United Arab Emirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iran ↓

United Arab Emirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Iran or draw

91%

Iran or United Arab Emirates

76%

Draw or United Arab Emirates

33%

Winning margin

Iran wins by 2+

37%

United Arab Emirates wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Iran 1+ goals

80%

Iran 2+ goals

47%

Iran 3+ goals

21%

United Arab Emirates 1+ goals

34%

United Arab Emirates 2+ goals

7%

United Arab Emirates 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Iran (draw refunded)

88%

United Arab Emirates (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iran at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.29 · 14 matches

United Arab Emirates away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iran attack 1.64 + United Arab Emirates defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.59

United Arab Emirates attack 0.54 + Iran defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Iran scores more

67%

level

24%

United Arab Emirates scores more

9%

Iran at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Iran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Tahnoon Al Zaabi

United Arab Emirates · M

7.5

Match Events

24'

38'

44'

49'

49'

54'

Saleh Hardani← S. Ghoddos

59'

A. Nourollahi← S. Ezatolahi

67'

Harib Abdalla Suhail← Khalil Ibrahim

67'

Sebastián Tagliabué← Ali Saleh

74'

Yahya Al Ghassani← Majed Hassan

83'

S. Yazdani Moghadam← M. Mohammadi

84'

Alireza Jahanbakhsh

84'

Tahnoon Alzaabi

86'

Zayed Al Ameri← Mahmoud Khamis

90+2'

Abdallah Ramadan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IranUnited

Overview

40%Possession60%

13Total Shots11

7Corners2

16Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots11

5On Target4

6Off Target5

2Blocked2

7Inside Box5

6Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

357Total Passes537

270Accurate Passes460

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides4