Iran 2–1 Burkina Faso: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Iran

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Burkina Faso

1/5/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Kish Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Iran58%

×Draw25%

Burkina Faso17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IranExpected goals in this matchBurkina Faso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.74

Iran

1.62

Burkina Faso

0.74

Iran creates 119% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

1.89

creates per match

0.90

0.58

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Iran

1.89

Burkina Faso

0.90

allows per match

Iran

0.58

Burkina Faso

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iran+0.00on par

Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iran ↓

Burkina Faso →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Iran or draw

83%

Iran or Burkina Faso

75%

Draw or Burkina Faso

42%

Winning margin

Iran wins by 2+

32%

Burkina Faso wins by 2+

Team goals

Iran 1+ goals

80%

Iran 2+ goals

48%

Iran 3+ goals

22%

Burkina Faso 1+ goals

52%

Burkina Faso 2+ goals

17%

Burkina Faso 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Iran (draw refunded)

78%

Burkina Faso (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Iran at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Iran attack 1.89 + Burkina Faso defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.62

Burkina Faso attack 0.90 + Iran defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Iran scores more

58%

level

25%

Burkina Faso scores more

17%

Iran at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Iran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff