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Iraklis 1908 vs Niki Volos — League #494 2026

Iraklis 1908
Iraklis 1908
CANC
13:00
Niki Volos
Niki Volos
11/28/2021League #494League #494 · Group A - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Iraklis 190839%
×Draw45%
Niki Volos16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iraklis 1908
0.67
Niki Volos
0.33

Iraklis 1908 creates 103% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Iraklis 1908
0.67
Niki Volos
0.33

allows per match

Iraklis 1908
0.33
Niki Volos
0.67

finishing

Iraklis 1908+0.00on par
Niki Volos+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Under
  • Under92
  • Over8

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

86%No
  • No86
  • Yes14

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iraklis 1908 ↓

Niki Volos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–037%
0–112%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–13%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (37%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
63%37%1.5
26%74%2.5
8%92%3.5
2%98%4.5
0%100%

Double chance

Iraklis 1908 or draw
84%
Iraklis 1908 or Niki Volos
55%
Draw or Niki Volos
61%

Winning margin

Iraklis 1908 wins by 2+
11%
Niki Volos wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Iraklis 1908 1+ goals
49%
Iraklis 1908 2+ goals
15%
Iraklis 1908 3+ goals
3%
Niki Volos 1+ goals
28%
Niki Volos 2+ goals
4%
Niki Volos 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Iraklis 1908 (draw refunded)
71%
Niki Volos (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
6%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iraklis 1908 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Niki Volos away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iraklis 1908 attack 0.67 + Niki Volos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Niki Volos attack 0.33 + Iraklis 1908 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Iraklis 1908 scores more
39%
level
45%
Niki Volos scores more
16%

Iraklis 1908 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Iraklis 1908 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraklis 1908 vs Niki Volos — Match Preview

Iraklis 1908 face Niki Volos on November 28, 2021 in this League #494 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.