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İrəvan vs Şamaxı FK — Birinci Dasta 2019

İrəvan
İrəvan
FT
2 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
4/17/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 22ASK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

İrəvan18%
×Draw19%
Şamaxı FK63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İrəvan
1.20
Şamaxı FK
2.38

Şamaxı FK creates 98% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

İrəvan
1.69
Şamaxı FK
2.21

allows per match

İrəvan
2.54
Şamaxı FK
0.71

finishing

İrəvan+0.00on par
Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İrəvan ↓

Şamaxı FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

İrəvan or draw
37%
İrəvan or Şamaxı FK
81%
Draw or Şamaxı FK
82%

Winning margin

İrəvan wins by 2+
7%
Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

İrəvan 1+ goals
70%
İrəvan 2+ goals
34%
İrəvan 3+ goals
12%
Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
91%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
68%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

İrəvan (draw refunded)
22%
Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İrəvan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Şamaxı FK away — creates 2.21, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İrəvan attack 1.69 + Şamaxı FK defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.20

Şamaxı FK attack 2.21 + İrəvan defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

İrəvan scores more
18%
level
19%
Şamaxı FK scores more
63%

Şamaxı FK at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: İrəvan vs Şamaxı FK

Şamaxı FK beat İrəvan 6-2 in Birinci Dasta on April 17, 2024.

The match was played at ASK Arena in Baku.