İrəvan 0–7 MOIK: Result & Stats | Birinci Dasta

İrəvan

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

MOIK

2/28/2024

Birinci Dasta · Round 16ASK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

İrəvan34%

×Draw22%

MOIK44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İrəvanExpected goals in this matchMOIK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.89

İrəvan

1.63

MOIK

1.89

MOIK creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 88 away

1.69

creates per match

1.23

2.54

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

İrəvan

1.69

MOIK

1.23

allows per match

İrəvan

2.54

MOIK

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İrəvan+0.00on par

MOIK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İrəvan ↓

MOIK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

İrəvan or draw

56%

İrəvan or MOIK

78%

Draw or MOIK

66%

Winning margin

İrəvan wins by 2+

16%

MOIK wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

İrəvan 1+ goals

80%

İrəvan 2+ goals

48%

İrəvan 3+ goals

22%

MOIK 1+ goals

85%

MOIK 2+ goals

56%

MOIK 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

İrəvan (draw refunded)

43%

MOIK (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İrəvan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

MOIK away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İrəvan attack 1.69 + MOIK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.63

MOIK attack 1.23 + İrəvan defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

İrəvan scores more

34%

level

22%

MOIK scores more

44%

MOIK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "MOIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff