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İrəvan vs Karvan — Birinci Dasta 2019

İrəvan
İrəvan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Karvan
Karvan
9/20/2023Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 2ASK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

İrəvan28%
×Draw21%
Karvan52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İrəvan
1.59
Karvan
2.21

Karvan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

İrəvan
1.69
Karvan
1.88

allows per match

İrəvan
2.54
Karvan
1.50

finishing

İrəvan+0.00on par
Karvan+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İrəvan ↓

Karvan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

İrəvan or draw
48%
İrəvan or Karvan
79%
Draw or Karvan
72%

Winning margin

İrəvan wins by 2+
13%
Karvan wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

İrəvan 1+ goals
80%
İrəvan 2+ goals
47%
İrəvan 3+ goals
21%
Karvan 1+ goals
89%
Karvan 2+ goals
65%
Karvan 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

İrəvan (draw refunded)
35%
Karvan (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İrəvan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Karvan away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İrəvan attack 1.69 + Karvan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Karvan attack 1.88 + İrəvan defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

İrəvan scores more
28%
level
21%
Karvan scores more
52%

Karvan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: İrəvan 0–0 Karvan

İrəvan and Karvan drew 0-0 in Birinci Dasta on September 20, 2023.

The match was played at ASK Arena in Baku.