IR Reykjavik 5–1 Sindri: Result & Stats | 2. Deild

IR Reykjavik

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sindri

7/22/2023

2. Deild · Round 13Hertz völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

IR Reykjavik64%

×Draw18%

Sindri18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IR ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchSindri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

1.32

IR Reykjavik

2.59

Sindri

1.32

IR Reykjavik creates 96% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 12 away

2.11

creates per match

1.08

1.56

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

IR Reykjavik

2.11

Sindri

1.08

allows per match

IR Reykjavik

1.56

Sindri

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Sindri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IR Reykjavik ↓

Sindri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

IR Reykjavik or draw

82%

IR Reykjavik or Sindri

82%

Draw or Sindri

36%

Winning margin

IR Reykjavik wins by 2+

43%

Sindri wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

IR Reykjavik 1+ goals

92%

IR Reykjavik 2+ goals

73%

IR Reykjavik 3+ goals

47%

Sindri 1+ goals

73%

Sindri 2+ goals

38%

Sindri 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

78%

Sindri (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IR Reykjavik at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 54 matches

Sindri away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IR Reykjavik attack 2.11 + Sindri defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.59

Sindri attack 1.08 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

IR Reykjavik scores more

64%

level

18%

Sindri scores more

18%

IR Reykjavik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "IR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff