IR Reykjavik 4–4 KFG: Result & Stats | 2. Deild

IR Reykjavik

FT

4 – 4

KFG

9/21/2019

2. Deild · Round 22Hertz völlurinn (Reykjavík)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

IR Reykjavik58%

×Draw20%

KFG23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IR ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchKFG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.40

IR Reykjavik

2.32

KFG

1.40

IR Reykjavik creates 66% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 50 away

2.18

creates per match

1.24

1.55

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

IR Reykjavik

2.18

KFG

1.24

allows per match

IR Reykjavik

1.55

KFG

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IR Reykjavik ↓

KFG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

IR Reykjavik or draw

77%

IR Reykjavik or KFG

80%

Draw or KFG

42%

Winning margin

IR Reykjavik wins by 2+

36%

KFG wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

IR Reykjavik 1+ goals

90%

IR Reykjavik 2+ goals

67%

IR Reykjavik 3+ goals

40%

KFG 1+ goals

75%

KFG 2+ goals

41%

KFG 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

72%

KFG (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IR Reykjavik at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.55 · 56 matches

KFG away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IR Reykjavik attack 2.18 + KFG defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.32

KFG attack 1.24 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

IR Reykjavik scores more

58%

level

20%

KFG scores more

23%

IR Reykjavik at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "IR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff