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IR Reykjavik vs Fylkir — 1. Deild 2026

IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
Preview
14:00
Fylkir
Fylkir
7/25/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 15
Big match
41%
IR Reykjavik
model favours
41%23%36%

85% of IR Reykjavik’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

IR Reykjavik41%
×Draw23%
Fylkir36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IR Reykjavik
1.75
Fylkir
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

creates per match

IR Reykjavik
1.96
Fylkir
2.00

allows per match

IR Reykjavik
1.22
Fylkir
1.54

finishing

IR Reykjavik+0.00on par
Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IR Reykjavik ↓

Fylkir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

IR Reykjavik or draw
64%
IR Reykjavik or Fylkir
77%
Draw or Fylkir
59%

Winning margin

IR Reykjavik wins by 2+
22%
Fylkir wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

IR Reykjavik 1+ goals
83%
IR Reykjavik 2+ goals
52%
IR Reykjavik 3+ goals
25%
Fylkir 1+ goals
80%
Fylkir 2+ goals
48%
Fylkir 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)
54%
Fylkir (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IR Reykjavik at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IR Reykjavik attack 1.96 + Fylkir defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fylkir attack 2.00 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IR Reykjavik scores more
41%
level
23%
Fylkir scores more
36%

IR Reykjavik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (85% and 71% over 2.5)
  • Fylkir score first in only 29% of matches
  • IR Reykjavik score first in only 31% of matches
  • 71% of Fylkir’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Reykjavik
LDLLD
Fylkir
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: IR Reykjavik host Fylkir

July 25, 2026: IR Reykjavik take on Fylkir in 1. Deild. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.