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Fylkir vs IR Reykjavik — 1. Deild 2026

Fylkir
Fylkir
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
E. Asmundsson 50'
B. Helgason 83' (pen)
V. Ivarsson 53'
7/4/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 11tekk VÖLLURINN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fylkir48%
×Draw22%
IR Reykjavik30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylkir
2.02
IR Reykjavik
1.56

Fylkir creates 29% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Fylkir
2.09
IR Reykjavik
1.67

allows per match

Fylkir
1.45
IR Reykjavik
1.95

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par
IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

IR Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw
70%
Fylkir or IR Reykjavik
78%
Draw or IR Reykjavik
52%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+
28%
IR Reykjavik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals
87%
Fylkir 2+ goals
60%
Fylkir 3+ goals
33%
IR Reykjavik 1+ goals
79%
IR Reykjavik 2+ goals
46%
IR Reykjavik 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)
62%
IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

IR Reykjavik away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 2.09 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.02

IR Reykjavik attack 1.67 + Fylkir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fylkir scores more
48%
level
22%
IR Reykjavik scores more
30%

Fylkir at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
O. Segatta
38'
A. Eythorsson
50'
E. Asmundsson
53'
V. Ivarsson
54'
E. Asmundsson← E. Asmundsson
66'
V. Ivarsson← V. Ivarsson
66'
G. Petersen← G. Petersen
67'
P. Aguilera
69'
E. Wohler← E. Wohler
69'
G. Tyrfingsson← G. Tyrfingsson
81'
O. Segatta← O. Segatta
81'
T. Gunnarsson← T. Gunnarsson
81'
E. Sigurhjartarson← E. Sigurhjartarson
83'
B. HelgasonPenalty
87'
O. Bjarkason← O. Bjarkason
90+4'
S. Gunnarsson
90+5'
E. Asmundsson
90+7'
R. Sveinsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Fylkir 1–2 IR Reykjavik

IR Reykjavik beat Fylkir 2-1 in 1. Deild on July 4, 2025.

Goals: E. Asmundsson (50'), V. Ivarsson (53'), B. Helgason (83' pen).

The match was played at tekk VÖLLURINN in Reykjavík.