IR Iran U17 vs Yemen U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2023
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
IR Iran U1733%
Yemen U1744%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Yemen U17 creates 18% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
IR Iran U17 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
IR Iran U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches
Yemen U17 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
IR Iran U17 attack 1.67 + Yemen U17 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46
Yemen U17 attack 1.63 + IR Iran U17 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Yemen U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Yemen U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
IR Iran U17 substitutes
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
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Guam U17If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
IR Iran U17 host Yemen U17 on Sunday, 25 June 2023 at 10:00. The match is part of the AFC U17 Asian Cup 2023/2024 season.
AFC U17 Asian Cup: IR Iran U17 0–0 Yemen U17
IR Iran U17 and Yemen U17 drew 0-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on June 25, 2023.
Goals: E. Darvish Aali (120+1' pen), Anwar Al Turaiqi (120+2' pen), H. Nafari (120+3' pen), E. Gholizadeh (120+5' pen), Essam Radman (120+6' pen), N. Andarz (120+9' pen).
The match was played at Thammasat Stadium in Pathum Thani.