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IR Iran U17 vs Korea DPR U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2023

IR Iran U17
IR Iran U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Korea DPR U17
Korea DPR U17
4/5/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 1Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IR Iran U1730%
×Draw21%
Korea DPR U1748%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IR Iran U17
1.58
Korea DPR U17
2.04

Korea DPR U17 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

IR Iran U17
1.67
Korea DPR U17
2.25

allows per match

IR Iran U17
1.83
Korea DPR U17
1.50

finishing

IR Iran U17+0.00on par
Korea DPR U17+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IR Iran U17 ↓

Korea DPR U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

IR Iran U17 or draw
52%
IR Iran U17 or Korea DPR U17
79%
Draw or Korea DPR U17
70%

Winning margin

IR Iran U17 wins by 2+
14%
Korea DPR U17 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

IR Iran U17 1+ goals
79%
IR Iran U17 2+ goals
47%
IR Iran U17 3+ goals
21%
Korea DPR U17 1+ goals
87%
Korea DPR U17 2+ goals
60%
Korea DPR U17 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

IR Iran U17 (draw refunded)
38%
Korea DPR U17 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IR Iran U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Korea DPR U17 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IR Iran U17 attack 1.67 + Korea DPR U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Korea DPR U17 attack 2.25 + IR Iran U17 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

IR Iran U17 scores more
30%
level
21%
Korea DPR U17 scores more
48%

Korea DPR U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Korea DPR U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IR Iran U17 vs Korea DPR U17

IR Iran U17 and Korea DPR U17 drew 1-1 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium in Jeddah.