IR Iran U17 vs Japan U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2023
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
IR Iran U1719%
Japan U1761%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Japan U17 creates 92% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
IR Iran U17 ↓
Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
IR Iran U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches
Japan U17 away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
IR Iran U17 attack 1.67 + Japan U17 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17
Japan U17 attack 2.67 + IR Iran U17 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
Japan U17 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "Japan U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
China PR U17
Vietnam U17
Yemen U17
Australia U17Japan U17
Malaysia U17
Bangladesh U17
Myanmar U17
Thailand U17
Laos U17
Pakistan U17
Turkmenistan U17
Kyrgyzstan U17
Bahrain U17
Oman U17
Kuwait U17
Uzbekistan U17
Iraq U17
Jordan U17IR Iran U17
Saudi Arabia U17
Hong Kong U17
Syria U17
Tajikistan U17
India U17
Korea Republic U17
Lebanon U17
Timor-Leste U17
Palestine U17
Singapore U17
Macau U17
Qatar U17
Indonesia U17
Afghanistan U17
Cambodia U17
Sri Lanka U17
Mongolia U17
United Arab Emirates U17
Chinese Taipei U17
Bhutan U17
Philippines U17
Nepal U17
Maldives U17
N. Mariana Islands U17
Brunei U17
Guam U17If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
IR Iran U17 host Japan U17 on Thursday, 29 June 2023 at 10:00. The match is part of the AFC U17 Asian Cup 2023/2024 season.
IR Iran U17 0 – 3 Japan U17
Japan U17 beat IR Iran U17 3-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on June 29, 2023.
Goals: R. Yada (10'), K. Mochizuki (25'), R. Sato (74').
The match was played at Thammasat Stadium in Pathum Thani.