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IR Iran U17 vs India U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2023

IR Iran U17
IR Iran U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
India U17
India U17
11/30/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

IR Iran U1754%
×Draw20%
India U1727%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IR Iran U17
2.33
India U17
1.61

IR Iran U17 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

IR Iran U17
1.67
India U17
1.40

allows per match

IR Iran U17
1.83
India U17
3.00

finishing

IR Iran U17+0.00on par
India U17+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IR Iran U17 ↓

India U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

IR Iran U17 or draw
73%
IR Iran U17 or India U17
80%
Draw or India U17
46%

Winning margin

IR Iran U17 wins by 2+
33%
India U17 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

IR Iran U17 1+ goals
90%
IR Iran U17 2+ goals
67%
IR Iran U17 3+ goals
41%
India U17 1+ goals
80%
India U17 2+ goals
48%
India U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

IR Iran U17 (draw refunded)
67%
India U17 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IR Iran U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

India U17 away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IR Iran U17 attack 1.67 + India U17 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

India U17 attack 1.40 + IR Iran U17 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

IR Iran U17 scores more
54%
level
20%
India U17 scores more
27%

IR Iran U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "IR Iran U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

IR
India
A. Chamanian
Manager: A. Chamanian
B. Fernandes
Manager: B. Fernandes

Match Recap: IR Iran U17 vs India U17

India U17 beat IR Iran U17 2-1 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on November 30, 2025.