IR Iran U17 6–1 Afghanistan U17: Result & Stats

IR Iran U17

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Afghanistan U17

R. Ghandipour 89'

E. Gholizadeh 51', 32' (pen)

K. Taheri 48', 45+4'

H. Nafari 28'

Hakim Khan Niazi 36'

6/16/2023

AFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 1Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IR Iran U1769%

×Draw16%

Afghanistan U1714%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IR Iran U17Expected goals in this matchAfghanistan U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.17

IR Iran U17

2.71

Afghanistan U17

1.17

IR Iran U17 creates 132% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

0.50

1.83

allows per match

3.75

creates per match

IR Iran U17

1.67

Afghanistan U17

0.50

allows per match

IR Iran U17

1.83

Afghanistan U17

3.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IR Iran U17+0.00on par

Afghanistan U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IR Iran U17 ↓

Afghanistan U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

IR Iran U17 or draw

86%

IR Iran U17 or Afghanistan U17

84%

Draw or Afghanistan U17

31%

Winning margin

IR Iran U17 wins by 2+

48%

Afghanistan U17 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

IR Iran U17 1+ goals

93%

IR Iran U17 2+ goals

75%

IR Iran U17 3+ goals

50%

Afghanistan U17 1+ goals

69%

Afghanistan U17 2+ goals

33%

Afghanistan U17 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

IR Iran U17 (draw refunded)

83%

Afghanistan U17 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IR Iran U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Afghanistan U17 away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IR Iran U17 attack 1.67 + Afghanistan U17 defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.71

Afghanistan U17 attack 0.50 + IR Iran U17 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

IR Iran U17 scores more

69%

level

16%

Afghanistan U17 scores more

14%

IR Iran U17 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "IR Iran U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

H. Nafari↳ N. Andarz

32'

E. GholizadehPenalty

36'

Hakim Khan Niazi

45+4'

K. Taheri↳ N. Andarz

46'

A. Zamani← Z. Saadavi

46'

Arash Ahmadi← Navid Mohammadi

48'

K. Taheri↳ N. Andarz

51'

E. Gholizadeh↳ K. Taheri

59'

Arash Habibi← Ahmad Fawad Sultani

59'

Ehsan Ahmad Rahmani← Farid Gawhari

60'

R. Ghandipour← Y. Barajeh

60'

A. Homaeifard← A. Zoleikhaei

67'

Farzad Tajik← Rohullah Nazari

70'

M. Sadeghi← M. Askari

77'

A. Sharifi← K. Taheri

85'

Habibullah Hotak← Enayatullah Kohi

89'

R. Ghandipour↳ A. Homaeifard

IR

Afghanistan

1

Noorzai

2

▼

Nazari

4

Sarwari

5

▼

Sultani

18

▼

Gawhari

6

Rahimi

7

Hamidi

10

⚽

Niazi

11

▼

Mohammadi

8

Okoazay

12

▼

Kohi

1

Shakouri

2

A

Andarz

3

⚽

Nafari

5

Aali

9

▼

Barajeh

23

▼

Zoleikhae

7

⚽2

Gholizade

8

Razzaghin

14

▼

Saadavi

15

▼

Askari

10

⚽2A

▼

Taheri

Manager: H. Abdi

46'▲A. Zamani←▼Z. Saadavi

60'▲R. Ghandipour←▼Y. Barajeh

60'▲A. Homaeifard←▼A. Zoleikhaei

70'▲M. Sadeghi←▼M. Askari

77'▲A. Sharifi←▼K. Taheri

IR Iran U17 substitutes

16Zamani17Ghandipour4Homaeifard18Sadeghi11Sharifi20Shamsipour19Fayaz22Rahimi21Moredi6Hoboobati12Sharifi13Jenadeleh

Manager: Yosuf Mohandis Zada

46'▲Arash Ahmadi←▼Navid Mohammadi

59'▲Arash Habibi←▼Ahmad Fawad Sultani

59'▲Ehsan Ahmad Rahmani←▼Farid Gawhari

67'▲Farzad Tajik←▼Rohullah Nazari

85'▲Habibullah Hotak←▼Enayatullah Kohi

Afghanistan U17 substitutes

9Ahmadi15Habibi3Rahmani20Tajik19Hotak14Ramazani13Jafari23Khil16Mehri21Mohammadi17Amini22Khairkhwa