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Ipswich vs Swindon Town — League One 2018

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
A. Judge 87'
J. Norwood 62'
D. Jaiyesimi 74', 16'
S. Twine 67'
1/9/2021League OneLeague One · Round 23Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ipswich53%
×Draw23%
Swindon Town23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.80
Swindon Town
1.11

Ipswich creates 62% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.70
Swindon Town
1.40

allows per match

Ipswich
0.83
Swindon Town
1.90

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
77%
Ipswich or Swindon Town
77%
Draw or Swindon Town
47%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
30%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
83%
Ipswich 2+ goals
54%
Ipswich 3+ goals
27%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
67%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
30%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
70%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Swindon Town defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.80

Swindon Town attack 1.40 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ipswich scores more
53%
level
23%
Swindon Town scores more
23%

Ipswich at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. NorwoodIpswichIpswich · F
8.3

Match Events

10'
Paul Caddis
16'
D. Jaiyesimi↳ D. Thompson
46'
F. Downes← E. Huws
46'
J. Norwood← A. Drinan
53'
Flynn Downes
62'
J. Norwood
67'
S. Twine↳ D. Thompson
71'
James Norwood
74'
D. Jaiyesimi↳ D. Thompson
78'
J. Lankester← A. Dobra
87'
A. Judge↳ J. Norwood
90+5'
A. Grant← M. Smith

Possession

62%Ipswich

Shots

14Ipswich

Pass accuracy

56%Ipswich

Statistics

IpswichSwindon
Overview
62%Possession38%
14Total Shots11
3Corners0
11Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots11
6On Target4
6Off Target4
2Blocked3
11Inside Box6
3Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
604Total Passes367
495Accurate Passes240
82%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Swindon Town

Swindon Town beat Ipswich 3-2 in League One on January 9, 2021.

Goals: D. Jaiyesimi (16', 74'), J. Norwood (62'), S. Twine (67'), A. Judge (87').

Ipswich controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.