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Ipswich vs Sheffield Wednesday — League One 2018

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday
2/11/2023League OneLeague One · Round 31Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Ipswich45%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Wednesday28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.43
Sheffield Wednesday
1.06

Ipswich creates 35% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 50 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.70
Sheffield Wednesday
1.30

allows per match

Ipswich
0.83
Sheffield Wednesday
1.16

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
72%
Ipswich or Sheffield Wednesday
73%
Draw or Sheffield Wednesday
55%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
22%
Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
76%
Ipswich 2+ goals
42%
Ipswich 3+ goals
17%
Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals
65%
Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals
29%
Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
62%
Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.30 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ipswich scores more
45%
level
27%
Sheffield Wednesday scores more
28%

Ipswich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Ipswich 2–2 Sheffield Wednesday

Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday drew 2-2 in League One on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.