Ipswich 0–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats | League One

Ipswich

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rotherham

M. Crooks 48', 11'

10/23/2019

League One · Round 15Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich47%

×Draw27%

Rotherham26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.99

Ipswich

1.42

Rotherham

0.99

Ipswich creates 43% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 99 away

1.70

creates per match

1.15

0.83

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Rotherham

1.15

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Rotherham

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

74%

Ipswich or Rotherham

73%

Draw or Rotherham

53%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

23%

Rotherham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

76%

Ipswich 2+ goals

41%

Ipswich 3+ goals

17%

Rotherham 1+ goals

63%

Rotherham 2+ goals

26%

Rotherham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

64%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ipswich scores more

47%

level

27%

Rotherham scores more

26%

Ipswich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Crooks

Rotherham · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

29'

43'

48'

59'

67'

67'

69'

76'

78'

79'

D. Barlaser← M. Crooks

84'

C. Morris← M. Olosunde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichRotherham

Overview

60%Possession40%

3Total Shots11

8Corners5

11Fouls20

Shots

3Total Shots11

2On Target3

1Off Target7

0Blocked1

3Inside Box7

0Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

414Total Passes274

282Accurate Passes145

68%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1