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Ipswich vs Rochdale — League One 2018

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rochdale
Rochdale
G. Edwards 59'
T. Bishop 53'
9/26/2020League OneLeague One · Round 3Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Ipswich53%
×Draw23%
Rochdale24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.77
Rochdale
1.10

Ipswich creates 61% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 72 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.70
Rochdale
1.38

allows per match

Ipswich
0.83
Rochdale
1.85

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
76%
Ipswich or Rochdale
77%
Draw or Rochdale
47%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
29%
Rochdale wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
83%
Ipswich 2+ goals
53%
Ipswich 3+ goals
26%
Rochdale 1+ goals
67%
Rochdale 2+ goals
30%
Rochdale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
69%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ipswich scores more
53%
level
23%
Rochdale scores more
24%

Ipswich at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. WilsonIpswichIpswich · D
7.9

Match Events

8'
Jimmy Ryan
50'
Eoghan O'Connell
53'
T. Bishop↳ O. Hawkins
59'
G. Edwards
63'
S. Dooley← J. Ryan
65'
Jon Nolan
67'
F. Downes← T. Bishop
75'
J. Lankester← F. Sears
75'
J. Norwood← O. Hawkins
88'
E. Brierley← A. Morley
88'
F. Tavares← J. Beesley

Possession

54%Ipswich

Shots

15Ipswich

Pass accuracy

51%Ipswich

Statistics

IpswichRochdale
Overview
54%Possession46%
15Total Shots15
3Corners7
12Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots15
5On Target1
4Off Target6
6Blocked8
9Inside Box9
6Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
553Total Passes465
450Accurate Passes365
81%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Rochdale

Ipswich beat Rochdale 2-0 in League One on September 26, 2020.

Goals: T. Bishop (53'), G. Edwards (59').

Ipswich controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.