Ipswich 1–1 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Ipswich

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Preston

F. Sears 45' (pen)

P. Gallagher 73'

11/3/2018

Championship · Round 16Portman Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Ipswich58%

×Draw23%

Preston19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.88

Ipswich

1.75

Preston

0.88

Ipswich creates 99% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 60 away

1.89

creates per match

0.99

0.77

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Ipswich

1.89

Preston

0.99

allows per match

Ipswich

0.77

Preston

1.62

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.13scores more

Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

81%

Ipswich or Preston

77%

Draw or Preston

42%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

33%

Preston wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

83%

Ipswich 2+ goals

52%

Ipswich 3+ goals

25%

Preston 1+ goals

59%

Preston 2+ goals

22%

Preston 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

76%

Preston (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.77 · 40 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.89 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

Preston attack 0.99 + Ipswich defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ipswich scores more

58%

level

23%

Preston scores more

19%

Ipswich at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

F. Sears

Ipswich · F

7.4

Match Events

36'

Luke Chambers

44'

Chris Maxwell

45'

Daniel Johnson

45'

F. SearsPenalty

51'

57'

62'

62'

71'

L. Nmecha← T. Barkhuizen

72'

P. Gallagher← A. Browne

73'

P. Gallagher

74'

K. Jackson← J. Roberts

75'

Chris Maxwell

75'

Chris Maxwell

77'

D. Rowe← G. Edwards

84'

A. Dozzell← F. Downes

90'

Matthew Pennington

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichPreston

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots8

8Corners6

17Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots8

2On Target3

8Off Target2

3Blocked3

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

343Total Passes322

198Accurate Passes169

58%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls9

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2