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Ipswich vs Port Vale — League One 2018

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
4/18/2023League OneLeague One · Round 43Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Ipswich59%
×Draw24%
Port Vale18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.73
Port Vale
0.82

Ipswich creates 111% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 72 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.70
Port Vale
0.82

allows per match

Ipswich
0.83
Port Vale
1.75

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
82%
Ipswich or Port Vale
76%
Draw or Port Vale
41%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
33%
Port Vale wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
82%
Ipswich 2+ goals
52%
Ipswich 3+ goals
25%
Port Vale 1+ goals
56%
Port Vale 2+ goals
20%
Port Vale 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
77%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Port Vale defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ipswich scores more
59%
level
24%
Port Vale scores more
18%

Ipswich at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Port Vale

Ipswich beat Port Vale 2-1 in League One on April 18, 2023.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.