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Ipswich vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
8/21/2021League OneLeague One · Round 4Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich49%
×Draw25%
Milton Keynes Dons26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.55
Milton Keynes Dons
1.05

Ipswich creates 48% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 95 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.70
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Ipswich
0.83
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
74%
Ipswich or Milton Keynes Dons
75%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
51%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
25%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
79%
Ipswich 2+ goals
46%
Ipswich 3+ goals
20%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
65%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
28%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
65%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ipswich scores more
49%
level
25%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
26%

Ipswich at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Milton Keynes Dons

Ipswich and Milton Keynes Dons drew 2-2 in League One on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.