Ipswich 4–0 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Forest Green

F. Ladapo 79'

C. Chaplin 60', 3'

N. Broadhead 41'

2/18/2023

League One · Round 33Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Ipswich64%

×Draw22%

Forest Green15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.76

Ipswich

1.87

Forest Green

0.76

Ipswich creates 146% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 23 away

1.70

creates per match

0.70

0.83

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Forest Green

0.70

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Forest Green

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

85%

Ipswich or Forest Green

78%

Draw or Forest Green

36%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

38%

Forest Green wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

85%

Ipswich 2+ goals

56%

Ipswich 3+ goals

29%

Forest Green 1+ goals

53%

Forest Green 2+ goals

18%

Forest Green 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

81%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Forest Green away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Forest Green defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.87

Forest Green attack 0.70 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ipswich scores more

64%

level

22%

Forest Green scores more

15%

Ipswich at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Davis

Ipswich · D

8.3

Match Events

3'

C. Chaplin↳ N. Broadhead

41'

N. Broadhead

54'

T. Omotoye← J. Garrick

59'

M. Luongo← C. Humphreys

60'

C. Chaplin↳ L. Davis

63'

U. Godwin-Malife← A. Bakayoko

68'

F. Ladapo← G. Hirst

68'

K. Edwards← N. Broadhead

68'

K. Jackson← W. Burns

73'

Jahmari Clarke← M. Peart-Harris

73'

C. McCann← C. OKeeffe

73'

S. O'Brien← C. Savage

77'

M. Harness← C. Chaplin

78'

Ben Stevenson

79'

F. Ladapo↳ C. Burgess

90+3'

Brandon Cooper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichForest

Overview

61%Possession39%

25Total Shots4

10Corners3

12Fouls5

Shots

25Total Shots4

12On Target0

8Off Target1

5Blocked3

19Inside Box1

6Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

529Total Passes343

426Accurate Passes249

81%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls5

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1