Ipswich 0–5 Eastern Suburbs: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

0 – 5

Eastern Suburbs

3/16/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 4Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ipswich25%

×Draw21%

Eastern Suburbs54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchEastern Suburbs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.16

Ipswich

1.42

Eastern Suburbs

2.16

Eastern Suburbs creates 52% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

1.39

creates per match

2.73

1.58

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Ipswich

1.39

Eastern Suburbs

2.73

allows per match

Ipswich

1.58

Eastern Suburbs

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Eastern Suburbs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

46%

Ipswich or Eastern Suburbs

79%

Draw or Eastern Suburbs

75%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

11%

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

76%

Ipswich 2+ goals

41%

Ipswich 3+ goals

17%

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

88%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

63%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

32%

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.39 + Eastern Suburbs defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Eastern Suburbs attack 2.73 + Ipswich defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ipswich scores more

25%

level

21%

Eastern Suburbs scores more

54%

Eastern Suburbs at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff