Ipswich 1–2 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Bristol Rovers

12/14/2019

League One · Round 21Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich55%

×Draw25%

Bristol Rovers20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.89

Ipswich

1.65

Bristol Rovers

0.89

Ipswich creates 85% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 131 away

1.70

creates per match

0.95

0.83

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

80%

Ipswich or Bristol Rovers

75%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

45%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

30%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

81%

Ipswich 2+ goals

49%

Ipswich 3+ goals

23%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

59%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

22%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

73%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ipswich scores more

55%

level

25%

Bristol Rovers scores more

20%

Ipswich at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff