Bristol Rovers 0–0 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ipswich

2/14/2023

League One · Round 32Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Bristol Rovers31%

×Draw27%

Ipswich41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.31

Bristol Rovers

1.10

Ipswich

1.31

Ipswich creates 19% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 84 away

1.20

creates per match

1.27

1.34

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

59%

Bristol Rovers or Ipswich

73%

Draw or Ipswich

69%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

12%

Ipswich wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

67%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

30%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

10%

Ipswich 1+ goals

73%

Ipswich 2+ goals

38%

Ipswich 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

43%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

31%

level

27%

Ipswich scores more

41%

Ipswich at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

E. Balcombe

Bristol Rovers · G

8.9

Match Events

58'

K. Edwards← W. Burns

58'

N. Broadhead← S. Aluko

75'

G. Hirst← F. Ladapo

75'

C. Chaplin← M. Harness

75'

H. Clarke← L. Davis

76'

J. Coburn← L. Bogarde

76'

L. Hoole← H. Anderson

86'

Harry Clarke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolIpswich

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots21

6Corners10

6Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots21

4On Target7

3Off Target10

2Blocked4

8Inside Box15

1Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

296Total Passes559

188Accurate Passes455

64%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2