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Ipswich vs Brisbane Strikers — Queensland Premier League 2026

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
0 – 6
Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers
3/23/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 5Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ipswich32%
×Draw22%
Brisbane Strikers46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.60
Brisbane Strikers
1.94

Brisbane Strikers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 55 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.39
Brisbane Strikers
2.29

allows per match

Ipswich
1.58
Brisbane Strikers
1.82

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Brisbane Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
54%
Ipswich or Brisbane Strikers
78%
Draw or Brisbane Strikers
68%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
15%
Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
80%
Ipswich 2+ goals
47%
Ipswich 3+ goals
22%
Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals
86%
Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals
58%
Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
41%
Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

Brisbane Strikers away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.39 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.29 + Ipswich defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ipswich scores more
32%
level
22%
Brisbane Strikers scores more
46%

Brisbane Strikers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Brisbane Strikers

Brisbane Strikers beat Ipswich 6-0 in Queensland Premier League on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.