Brisbane Strikers 4–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Brisbane Strikers

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ipswich

6/21/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 16Perry Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Brisbane Strikers55%

×Draw22%

Ipswich23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane StrikersExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.16

Brisbane Strikers

1.94

Ipswich

1.16

Brisbane Strikers creates 67% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 31 away

2.33

creates per match

1.19

1.12

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Brisbane Strikers

2.33

Ipswich

1.19

allows per match

Brisbane Strikers

1.12

Ipswich

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane Strikers+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Strikers ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Brisbane Strikers or draw

77%

Brisbane Strikers or Ipswich

78%

Draw or Ipswich

45%

Winning margin

Brisbane Strikers wins by 2+

32%

Ipswich wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brisbane Strikers 1+ goals

86%

Brisbane Strikers 2+ goals

58%

Brisbane Strikers 3+ goals

30%

Ipswich 1+ goals

69%

Ipswich 2+ goals

32%

Ipswich 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Strikers (draw refunded)

71%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Strikers at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Strikers attack 2.33 + Ipswich defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ipswich attack 1.19 + Brisbane Strikers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brisbane Strikers scores more

55%

level

22%

Ipswich scores more

23%

Brisbane Strikers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brisbane Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff