Ipswich 2–2 Barnsley: Result & Stats | League One

Ipswich

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Barnsley

Sam Morsy 70'

C. Chaplin 27'

C. Styles 75'

J. Aitchison 33'

8/27/2022

League One · Round 6Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich44%

×Draw25%

Barnsley31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.21

Ipswich

1.50

Barnsley

1.21

Ipswich creates 24% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 118 away

1.70

creates per match

1.59

0.83

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Barnsley

1.59

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Barnsley

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

69%

Ipswich or Barnsley

75%

Draw or Barnsley

56%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

22%

Barnsley wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

78%

Ipswich 2+ goals

44%

Ipswich 3+ goals

19%

Barnsley 1+ goals

70%

Barnsley 2+ goals

34%

Barnsley 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

59%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ipswich scores more

44%

level

25%

Barnsley scores more

31%

Ipswich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Evans

Ipswich · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

C. Oduor← J. Helliwell

27'

C. Chaplin

33'

J. Aitchison↳ L. Connell

41'

M. Wolfe← J. Benson

59'

Callum Styles

65'

J. Norwood← J. Aitchison

65'

S. Tedić← D. Cole

67'

K. Vincent-Young← L. Davis

67'

M. Harness← T. John-Jules

67'

K. Jackson← F. Ladapo

68'

George Edmundson

70'

Sam Morsy↳ W. Burns

71'

Conor Chaplin

75'

C. Styles↳ L. Connell

81'

86'

87'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichBarnsley

Overview

67%Possession33%

13Total Shots9

4Corners2

13Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots9

7On Target4

4Off Target4

2Blocked1

10Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

599Total Passes290

479Accurate Passes173

80%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1