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Ipswich vs Barnsley — Championship 2018

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
11/1/2013ChampionshipChampionship · Round 14Portman Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Ipswich51%
×Draw25%
Barnsley25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.63
Barnsley
1.06

Ipswich creates 54% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.72
Barnsley
0.93

allows per match

Ipswich
1.20
Barnsley
1.54

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
75%
Ipswich or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
49%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
27%
Barnsley wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
80%
Ipswich 2+ goals
48%
Ipswich 3+ goals
22%
Barnsley 1+ goals
65%
Barnsley 2+ goals
29%
Barnsley 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
67%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.20 · 85 matches

Barnsley away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.54 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.72 + Barnsley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63

Barnsley attack 0.93 + Ipswich defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ipswich scores more
51%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
25%

Ipswich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Barnsley

Ipswich and Barnsley drew 1-1 in Championship on November 1, 2013.

The match was played at Portman Road Stadium in Ipswich, Suffolk.